01. Hypotheses
Define possible explanations that compete with each other.
H1H1: Drug Trafficking Organization (DTO) Competition
H2H2: State Weakness and Institutional Corruption
H3H3: Socioeconomic Marginalization
H4H4: Prison System Breakdown and Gang Control
H5H5: Regional Spillover (Colombia/Peru)
02. Evidence
Add facts, data, or observed information.
E1Homicides increased 208% (2016-2024)
w: 1
E2Drug seizures increased from 30 to 210 tons
w: 1
E3Prison massacres: 180+ deaths (2020-2023)
w: 1
E4400+ police officers in corruption networks
w: 1
E5Youth unemployment 22% in peripheral districts
w: 1
E6Gang territories increased from 18 to 45
w: 1
E7Sinaloa Cartel and CJNG presence documented
w: 1
E8Gini coefficient rose from 0.47 to 0.52
w: 1
E9Conviction rate dropped from 8% to 4%
w: 1
E10Prisons at 230% capacity, 90% gang-controlled
w: 1
E11Recruitment age dropped to 14-16 years
w: 1
E1272% firearms from Peru, 18% Colombia
w: 1